Asians driving 4G developments Technology curve has surpassed 3G. What?s the shake-up like? March 16, 2005 http://www.jeffooi.com/i-witness/archives/002196.php We are in a world that sees old paradigms breaking down like ten-pins. Years ago, nobody would expect Japanese firms to hire foreigner CEOs to manage companies started by their forefathers, but Nissan broke the norm, with the latest being Sony. Similarly, technology takes the same trendline, albeit in a reverse mode. If 3G used to be pioneered by the western countries, a.k.a. Europe and US, this time around, we notice 4G developments being Asian-led by the Japanese, Korean and Chinese players. It will be a fight for survival in years to come. Already, early this year, we saw two important events in the world of next generation wireless networks. NTT DoCoMo and Vodafone, the carriers that are most reliant on the survival of the GSM technologies by morphing into a fourth generation, have formed the ?Super 3G Group? to develop upgrades for W-CDMA. Interestingly too, Samsung, another Asian player, takes an opposing position by aligning itself with Intel in developing WiMAX Forum. Yes, the Asian-led 4G development has gone on a divergent path and it will result in market conflicts. The "Super 3G" group is said to be redundant when set against the existing 4G development efforts by vendors like Nokia and bodies like 3GPP, and the emergence of broadband wireless perpetuated by WiMAX. Incumbent mobile operators face a new market orientation ? they are now reduced to carriers of bits-and-bytes as the focus has shifted from network to device as evidenced by the proliferation of Wi-Fi. As a result, early-mover celcos which have invested heavily in 3G technologies need to go back to the drawing board to re-examine their business assumptions. Remember, none of them have rolled out commercial-scale services, let alone recuperate from their upfront license fees and capital expenditure. We need to understand that, thus far, there are no definitive standards for 4G, and little consensus has been achieved by the developers. It is a fuzzy, wobbly milestone which is still confined to the laboratories and standards test-beds, though it was once touted for commercialisation around 2010-2015. Take it with a big pinch of salt. To the layman who wants to have an inkling of the data delivery speeds, the basic understanding derived from the ITU and other industry forums is that 4G will be based on Internet Protocol (IP), running at 100Mbps while mobile and 1Gbps when fixed. To the gadget-fans, 4G is supposed to support next-gen applications such as HDTV and chunky corporate data flowing into the handset, with mobility as the key buzzword. Both "Super 3G" and WiMAX endeavour to achieve that speed and killer apps. If this technology trend is sustained, it means industry players ? notably equipment makers or network operators who have been excluded from the 2G/3G phase for one reason or another ? can now get a crack at the wireless networks. Conversely, it?s bad news for the incumbents who are laden with legacy standards such as GSM and CDMA, and stuck with 3G prototypes. Their investments may be wiped-off should the 4G dog-fight culminates in a platform that is not technologically and financially compatible with their existing infrastructure. There will be tremendous pressure in terms of lead time between recouping ROI and technology obsolesce. Fight-back is on the cards. The ?Super 3G? community has lined up 27 initial supporters - comprising many of the world?s largest celcos like DoCoMo, Vodafone, US market leader Cingular Wireless and China Mobile ? to take an aggressive ward-off stance against wireless broadband, and any next-gen technology that thwarts seamless migration from 3G. Interestingly too, rival 3G technology owners, namely W-CDMA and CDMA2000, has joined hands against WiMAX, a new threat that holds the promise to be the world?s first globally unified mobile standard. It is here that innovation from Korean players had made the most meaningful impact by pulling the resources of chaebols together. For example, Samsung and LG Electronics, by their sheer size and global market share, have collectively persuaded their WiMAX ally, Intel, to take a common technology roadmap. The Korean standard for OFDM-based broadband mobility, called ?Wi-Bro?, now looks set to become the de facto mobile version of WiMAX, in harmony with IEEE 802.16e standards. The Asian Age of technology has cometh. It will not only be fight for commercial leadership, but also about tilting the balance of power in the mobile industry towards Asia. Notably, Japan and Korea have the most advanced deployments of mobile and broadband networks in the world. As a result, Asian industry players will gradually reduce the power of the European and US companies in this critical sector. They will surely take advantage of this to set the global technology agenda, increase their respective market influence and revenues. Did I tell you Samsung holds hundreds of patents related to 4G, with some 100 of which already incorporated in 3G and 4G standards? Take that as the icing on the cake. |