HSDPA Drives Growth of 3.5G Technologies

http://www.cellular-news.com/story/10925.shtml

With 3G set for widespread launch in 2004 across
Europe, operators are already thinking about the post
3G world and what comes next. According to a new
report from mobile industry analysts, ARC Group, the
technologies making the largest immediate impact on
the post 3G world will be the upgrades to 3.5G and
integration of WLAN into wide area networks.

Buoyed by a resurgence in infrastructure spending,
industry attention is now focussing on the potential
of HSDPA in particular to extend 3G capabilities on
the road to an all-IP network and wireless/wireline
convergence. Indeed, all the major vendors are now
shipping HSDPA-enabled W-CDMA infrastructure and
following the lead of NTT DoCoMo, Which is planning on
launching HSDPA services as early as 2005, All the key
players are planning trials for the end of the year.

Against this background, ARC Group forecasts that 3.5G
subscribers (including HSDPA, TDD and proprietary
technologies like Flash OFDM) will reach 9.1 million
subscribers by 2008.

In the run-up to 4G - which is not expected until 2010
at the earliest - operators will look for ways to
enhance network performance through evolutionary
upgrades in the same way EDGE and 1xRTT have been used
in the 2G world. HSDPA is expected to become the most
popular of 3.5G technologies due to its support from
major vendors like Nokia. HSDPA uses adaptive
modulation and a new shared downlink transport channel
type to achieve a two-fold increase in air interface
capacity and a five-fold increase in data speeds in
the downlink direction.

With the advent of WLAN enabled PDA's and smartphones,
there is likely to be more competition from PWLAN
providers for broadband mobile revenues. However,
rather than compete head on, PWLAN will be subsumed
into the network mix, supplementing the 3G/3.5G
network for data intensive applications. Despite this,
mobile subscribers using PWLAN services over their
mobile device will only make up around 50 million
users by 2008, less than 20% of total 3G subscribers.

Chris White, Telecoms Consultant at ARC comments: "Too
much attention  has been paid to how PWLAN will
compete with 3G rather than looking at the benefits of
combining both network technologies. Further
integration of WLAN into the mobile network mix is one
of the vital stepping stones to 4G. The so-called
access pyramid model, where multiple networks coexist
allowing users to seamlessly switch between the most
appropriate network for the device and situation, will
not substitute the need for a 4G network. At the heart
of everything will be the core network, be it 3G or
4G, which will be supplemented by PAN and WLAN
offerings and by network upgrades in the medium-term.